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GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SESSION: HAVE WE REACHED A TURNING POINT?

Organizers:

“Economic Research Institute” JCS, Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee 

Relevance:

 

Goals:

 

Key issues:

 

Key issues:

  • After many years of revising forecasts downwards since the global financial crisis in 2007, IMF is now anticipating that global growth is picking up, reflecting a firming-up of activity in advanced economies, an anticipated shift in the macroeconomic policy mix in the United States, and stabilization in emerging economies.
  • International Monetary Fund in January projected a pickup in global growth this year and next—to 3.4 and 3.6 percent—compared to 3.1 percent in 2016. Emerging and developing economies, led by China and India, continue to contribute more than three-quarters of total global GDP growth in 2017.
  • Nevertheless, the global recovery is still affected by:
  • Slower growth in the key drivers of long-term prosperity - namely trade, investment and productivity. The global financial markets continue to face heightened levels of uncertainity as a negative feedback loop arising from productivity and global trade slowdowns and rising protectionism.
  • The new shift of U.S. macroeconomic policy mix that will rely more on fiscal stimulus package and the end of the low interest rate cycle will induce a stronger dollar. Besides, the divergence of fiscal and monetary policy, Asia and Europe, and the low interest rate policy is being re-assessed. What is behind this shift in the balance of the policy mix?
  • Weak growth recovery of the Chinese economy, delayed recovery in Japan, doubts over EU unity in light of upcoming elections and Brexit, along with geopolitical tensions in Asia and outside of the region, the global trade slowdown, great plunge of commodities prices, series of devaluations will also foreshadow the 2017 outlook.

This panel will discuss the global economic outlook amid all these looming uncertainties and prospects for sustainable growth in the years ahead.

Welcoming remarks: Marc Uzan, Founder and Executive Director, RBWC             

Speakers:                                   

  • Dimitris Tsitsiragos, Vice President, International Finance Corporation (IFC)
  • Sergey Glazyev, Economic Adviser to the President of Russian Federation
  • Jacob Frenkel, Chairman, JP Morgan Chase International, Governor of the Bank of Israel (1991-2000)
  • Marek Belka, Prime Minister of Poland (2004-2005), President of the National Bank of Poland (2010-2016)
  • Paulo Nogueira Batista, President of the BRICS New Development Bank
  • David Daokui Li, Professor of Economics, Director of the Center for China in the World Economy
  • Ali Babacan, Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey (2009-2015) (tbc)
 

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