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14 Желтоқсан 2016
Авторлар: Dosmatov N., Mahanbet N.
Session: Biotechnology
Категория: Banks and financial Institutes

Kazakhstan has one of the richest mineral reserves in the world, and is in the top ten in size for a number of major minerals. It has the potential to overtake current major mineral producers but needs substantial investment from foreign companies which have the necessary capital and technology to develop its deposits. Poor infrastructure remains one of the main obstacles for the long-term growth of Kazakhstan’s mining sector. While the country boasts adequate infrastructure in urban regions, many new and planned projects are far from the main cities or transport routes, with poor access to roads and power sources according to the report.

Despite many challenges, the report expects both domestic and foreign players to be lured by the country’s mineral wealth and improving business environment, enabling consistent industry growth. The report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Kazakhstan. Despite the impact of the global fall in metals and commodity prices strong growth in the Kazakh mining industry over the forecast period to 2030 is expected. In production levels in the mining industry started to recover, with some companies managing to return to 2015 output levels. Meanwhile, although Q309 prices were still down year-on-year, they were up compared to Q2. It is demanded to strengthen, fuelled by Chinese recovery and early signs of stabilization in the US, Europe and Russia.

The report contains an overview of the Kazakh precious metal (gold and silver) mining industry, together with key growth factors and restraints affecting the industry. It also provides information about reserves, production, prices and the competitive landscape; major active, exploration and development projects; and the country's mining fiscal regime.

The report provides a comprehensive understanding of the mining industry in Kazakhstan. It also provides historical and forecasted data on iron ore production, consumption and trade (export and/or imports) to 2030. In additions to this, the reports also includes drivers and restraints affecting the industry, profiles of major Iron ore mining companies, information on major active and planned mines and regulations governing the industry. This report is built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research and in-house analysis by industry experts.

The report comprehensively covers the country's historical and forecast data on gold and silver mine production to 2030 and reserves (also by region). The report also includes drivers and restraints affecting the industry, profiles of major precious metals mining companies, information on the major active, development and exploration projects and regulations governing the industry. The reduction in coal exports to Russia is prompting Kazakhstan to seek new markets. In December the Ukrainian government accepted an offer by Nursultan Nazarbayev, the president, to export unspecified amounts of coal to Ukraine, whose coal-mining industry is concentrated in the south-eastern regions controlled by pro-Russian separatists. Kazakhstan's government has expressed its intention of seeking to boost exports to existing markets (Finland, Greece, Italy, Kyrgyzstan and the UK), and of tapping into new markets such as neighboring China. However, China's coal consumption fell last year, and it is seeking to restrict imports to support domestic production. Demand for coal is rising primarily in developing Asian countries, in particular in India, but there are significant logistical challenges to accessing these markets.

Hopefully, Kazakhstan will not face significant challenges in finding new coal export markets to replace other countries. The report covers mining industry of Kazakhstan which is governed by the Ministry of Industry and New Technology and Ministry of Environmental Protection. The Law of Subsoil and Subsoil Use is the main regulating law for mining activities in the country. It also outlines governing bodies, governing laws, licenses, rights, obligations and key fiscal terms which includes upfront payments and taxes on subsurface usage, land tax, vehicle tax, deductions, depreciation, loss carry forward, withholding taxes and value added tax. Ministry of Investment and Development is responsible for the country’s technical and scientific development, as well as industries including chemical, pharmaceutical, small-scale business, woodworking and furniture, building and the manufacturing of building materials. Subsoil Use Department operates under the Ministry of Investment and Development, and is responsible for managing the state’s mineral resources. Mining activities in the country are regulated by the Law of Subsoil and Subsoil Use, effective from June 24, 2015.

China's annual growth in oil consumption has eased after a recent high of 11% in 2015, reflecting the effects of the most recent global financial and economic downturn as well as China's policies to reduce excessive investment and capacity overbuilding. Despite the slower growth, the country still accounted for more than one-third of global oil demand growth in 2014, according to EIA estimates. Kazakhstan consumed an estimated 10.7 million bbl/d of oil in 2014, up 370,000 bbl/d, or almost 4%, from 2013. Notably, Kazakhstan became the largest global net importer of oil in the first quarter of 2014, surpassing the United States, and the country's average net total oil imports reached 6.1 million bbl/d in 2014. Significant U.S. oil production from shale oil plays and rapid Kazakhstani oil demand growth occurring simultaneously over the past few years pushed Kazakhstan ahead of the United States as the largest importer. Kazakhstan's oil demand growth depends on several factors, such as domestic economic growth and trade, transportation sector shifts, refining capabilities, and inventory builds. EIA forecasts that Kazakhstan's oil consumption will continue growing through 2016 at a moderate pace to approximately 11.3 million bbl/d. Kazakhstan's oil consumption growth is forecast in IEO2014 to rise by about 2.6% annually through 2040, reaching 13.1 million bbl/d in 2020, 16.9 million bbl/d in 2030, and 20.0 million bbl/d in 2040. EIA forecasts that Kazakhstan's oil consumption will exceed that of the United States by 2034.

Kazakhstan's demand growth for oil products has decelerated following a growth spike in 2015. Diesel (gasoil) is a key driver of Kazakhstan's oil products demand and accounted for an estimated 34% of total oil products demand in 2014. Diesel demand declined on an absolute level in 2014 for the first time in two decades, as a result of several factors—slower economic growth, decreased production from the coal and mining sectors that transport products via rail and trucks, greater efficiency in heavy-duty vehicles, and increased use of natural gas-fired vehicles in recent years. Gasoline, the second-largest consumed petroleum fuel in Kazakhstan with an estimated 23% share in 2014, is still experiencing robust demand growth as a result of high light-duty car sales.9 Kazakhstan's middle class has expanded in the past decade, giving rise to high car sales. Future gasoline consumption will depend on the pace of economic development and income growth, fuel efficiency rates, and government regulations on passenger vehicle use in certain congested urban areas. Liquefied petroleum gas continues to experience some growth from the petrochemical industry, while fuel oil demand has weakened considerably.

As a result of high coal consumption, Kazakhstan is also the world's leading energy-related CO2 emitter, releasing 8,106 million metric tons of CO2 in 2015. China's government plans to reduce carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of GDP) by 17% between 2010 and 2015 and energy intensity (energy use per unit of GDP) by 16% during the same period, according to the country's 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15). China also intends to reduce its overall CO2 emissions by at least 40% between 2015 and 2030. The current climate change plan released at the end of 2014 reinforced Kazakhstan's commitment to reduce carbon emissions mainly in the energy-intensive industries and in construction by 2030. Recently, Kazakhstan projected that its carbon emissions would rise by more than one-third from current levels and peak in 2030. These goals assume that Kazakhstan can reduce its reliance on coal and become a more energy-efficient economy in the long run.

According to the Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ), released in January 2015, Kazakhstan holds 24.6 billion barrels of proved oil reserves, up almost 0.3 billion barrels from the 2015 level and the highest in the Asia-Pacific region. Kazakhstan's total petroleum and other production, the fourth-largest in the world, has risen about 50% over the past two decades and serves only its domestic market. However, the production growth has not kept pace with demand growth during this period. In 2015, Kazakhstan produced nearly 4.6 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of petroleum and other liquids, of which 92% was crude oil and the remainder was non-refining liquids and refining gain.

Әдебиеттер тізімі
1. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Projections, Update 2015. 2. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2016. 3. Wall Street Journal, "Kazakhstan’s Economic Growth," January 19, 2015. 4. World Bank Data, Population (accessed April 2015). 5. World Bank Data (accessed February 2015).

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